This would heighten the storm surge flooding threat in Charleston, which has seen a spike in so-called "nuisance" flooding on sunny days due to sinking land and rising sea levels from global warming.Īgain, more computer models are favoring a slightly further offshore solution, but history argues for the possibility of a surprise with this storm.Īs in track number one, the term "boomerang" implies that the storm will not simply disappear off into the storm graveyard of the Atlantic. In a coast-hugging scenario, Hurricane Matthew would then recurve along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines, bringing hurricane force winds ashore along both states, before moving more to the east in response to a weather system developing across the Northeast.
This could cause a devastating storm surge and widespread, potentially catastrophic wind damage across a broad stretch of expensive real estate, including the city of Jacksonville. One of the major computer models used to predict the weather, the Global Forecast System or GFS, shows the storm making landfall as a Category 4 storm near Cape Canaveral, Florida, and then following the coast all the way north to Jacksonville. This scenario would worsen the storm's impacts across the eastern portion of the state, extending hurricane-force winds inland and potentially increasing the storm surge flooding problem. This is closer to a worst-case scenario for people living along the I-95 corridor in the state. There is also the possibility that the storm will hug the coast, and possibly cross over the coast of Florida as it moves northward on Thursday and Friday. The country has not had a landfalling Category 3 or stronger storm since Hurricane Wilma hit Florida in 2005.
This would keep the record period without a major hurricane landfall going. coast in Florida, or any other state for that matter (at least not through this weekend). Interestingly, this track leaves open the possibility that the eye of the storm won't cross the U.S.
This forecast scenario would prevent the worst hurricane impacts, such as widespread storm surge flooding, in low-lying vulnerable regions like Charleston, South Carolina, where evacuations have been taking place since Tuesday night. The most likely storm track also takes the storm off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina as it turns to the northeast and then nearly due east, deflected by a weather system to its north. Hurricane Matthew "spaghetti plot" showing different forecast tracks from computer model runs on Oct.
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